WEATHERING THE STORM: COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS AND YEAR-END PREDICTIONS

🚀 2025 Commodities Surge: Top Gainers and Where They're Headed

As we cross the midpoint of 2025, the commodities market has delivered a rollercoaster of supply shocks, weather disruptions, and geopolitical uncertainty. While some contracts have remained steady, others have taken off like rockets—reshaping procurement strategies and hedging frameworks across industries.

Here’s a look at the top performers in 2025 and what could be in store by year-end.

🟤 Cocoa: The King of Volatility

YTD Gain: +79.3%
Current Price: ~$10,750/metric ton
Forecast: $11,500–$12,000 by Q4

Cocoa prices have soared to record highs, driven by crop disease and export constraints in West Africa. Ivory Coast and Ghana, which supply over 60% of the world’s cocoa, are facing tight inventories and weather anomalies. With holiday-season demand ahead, prices could push even higher—potentially breaching $12,000 by year-end if supply chains don’t normalize.

☕ Coffee (Arabica): Weathering a Wild Year

YTD Gain: +50.3%
Current Price: ~$2.05/lb
Forecast: $2.20–$2.35/lb by Q4

Central American droughts and Brazilian frost are tightening arabica supplies just as global demand rebounds. Coffee futures may continue their climb as roasters lock in inventories before winter. Watch for speculative buying and hedge fund momentum to keep prices elevated.

🟡 Palm Kernel Oil: The Silent Climber

YTD Gain: +106.2%
Current Price: ~$1,725/ton
Forecast: $1,850–$2,000/ton by Q4

Often overlooked, palm kernel oil has quietly become a star performer. Industrial demand for biodiesel and processed food ingredients, coupled with labor shortages in Malaysia and Indonesia, have sent prices surging. If shipping constraints persist, further upside is likely.

🪙 Gold: The Safe Haven Holds

YTD Gain: +30.3%
Current Price: ~$2,195/oz
Forecast: $2,300–$2,450/oz by Q4

In an era of rate cuts and geopolitical tension, gold remains the go-to hedge. Central bank buying, especially from emerging markets, is supporting the rally. If inflation resurfaces or global conflict intensifies, gold may break through the $2,400 threshold.

🔧 Rubber: Rebounding with Demand

YTD Gain: +27.2%
Current Price: ~$1.68/kg
Forecast: $1.80–$1.95/kg by Q4

Rubber is riding the wave of industrial recovery in Asia. With auto production bouncing back and supply still constrained by flooding in Thailand, prices are trending upward. Procurement teams in automotive and manufacturing sectors should monitor this closely.

🔍 What's Next?

While past performance isn't a guarantee, these commodity trends are shaping contracts, supplier negotiations, and sourcing strategies. Seasonality, speculation, and global economic signals will define the next few months—and agility in procurement planning will be key.